A Guide to Following Round 30, a Critical Week for the Euroleague (and Eurocup)

The Euroleague’s switch this season  to the new 16-team, 30-round Regular Season format, in my opinion, has been a resounding success. The continuity of the same teams competing, and same general week-to-week schedule has not only helped Euroleague teams and players gain familiarity with worldwide basketball fans (especially American ones who are just getting acquainted with the European game), but it also has helped the product on the court: teams can prepare better knowing exactly what their schedule is until the end of the Regular season in early April.

Now, we are in Round 30, the last game of the regular season. Many Euroleague purists who didn’t support the new format worried that the last few weeks may be worthless, especially if the competition was too top heavy, as has been the case in years past. However, Round 30 will prove to be a crucial week for a majority of the Euroleague squads, as playoff positioning, as well as the remaining 8th spot will all be on the line April 6th-7th.

And if that’s not enough, a Eurocup champion (and hence ,automatic Euroleague berth for 2017-2018) will be determined as well on April 5th. This is a huge week in European basketball, and it will be tough as a fan to navigate through it (after all, no one wants to be late to big news, though as an American, it happens to me quite frequently).

Thankfully, here’s a guide of what to know, what games to watch, and what to watch for during this incredibly important week for basketball in the European continent.

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April 5th-Eurocup Championship Round 3

Who punches their Euroleague ticket?: Valencia Basket vs. Unicaja Malaga

Both teams have held serve in this All-ACB Liga Endesa final, as Valencia took the first game in Valencia, thanks to a 14 point, 8-rebound performance by center Bojan Dubljevic, who also hit a dagger 3-pointer with 31 seconds left to clinch a 68-62 win. With a chance to clinch the title and win a record fourth Eurocup championship, Valencia fell short, as the rabid Malaga fans, a 22-point performance by Jamar Smith, and a 12-point, 10-rebound double-double by Alen Omic helped Unicaja pull out game two in a 79-71 win.

Both teams have been extremely good at home, as both teams also went undefeated at home in the semifinal rounds as well. With that being the case, the advantage appears to be in favor of Valencia, who not only has the homecourt advantage, but the Eurocup championship experience that Unicaja sorely lacks (this is their first year in the Eurocup after being a long-standing participant in the Euroleague previously).

The player to watch in this game may be Fernando San Emeterio, who has not had a strong Finals after playing well in the previous rounds of the playoffs, especially in the semifinals against Hapoel Jerusalem, where he had two games with a PIR over 20 (both at home). In game 1, San Emeterio only scored 4 points on 2 of 5 shooting for a PIR of 4. In game 2, even though the points went up (he scored 9), it was an extremely inefficient game for the Spanish veteran, as he shot 2 of 10 from the field (1-of-6 from three point land), and posted a PIR of 1. San Emeterio has had a big home game every round of the playoffs so far (in the Quarterfinals against Khimki, he had 17 points, 8 rebounds and a PIR of 29 in game 1 at Valencia). If he can produce that in game 3, Valencia’s fourth Eurocup championship is as good as sealed. That being said, if Unicaja can neutralize him for a third-straight game with the combo of Jeff Brooks and Adam Waczynski, then Unicaja could pull off the game 3 upset, and their first Eurocup championship.

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April 6th-Euroleague Round 30 games

Watch it on replay: Brose Bamberg vs. Galatasaray Odeabank

What if Brose hadn’t lost so many close games this year? What if Galatasaray could play any semblance of defense? Both teams have showed flashes of being a postseason threat, but unfortunately for them and their fans, they often fell short this season. This should be an exciting game, not to mention a high-scoring one. However, both teams were out of the playoff picture weeks ago. If you have the time, watch this one on replay, as it may have a chance to break the 100 point mark for both teams. Bamberg post savant Nicolo Melli should have a field day against the Galatasaray frontcourt, which has been inconsistent all year on the defensive and rebounding end.

Worth watching sporadically: Maccabi Fox Tel Aviv vs. Panathinaikos

Pana has the fourth spot pretty much locked up after a huge 85-80 home win over CSKA Moscow in Round 29, and thus may be tempted to rest key players in preparation for the playoffs (they won’t improve or worsen their positioning, win or lose, according to this chart courtesy of Overbasket). They have been one of the hottest teams in the Euroleague since James Gist returned to the lineup (and consequently, after Alessandro Gentile was released). The athletic frontcourt combo of Gist and Chris Singleton has made Pana one of the most formidable and flexible frontcourts in the Euroleague, as they can switch with effectiveness on the perimeter defensively, and damage inside and out on the offensive end. Pana has not lost since Gist returned in Round 26, a big reason why they clinched the fourth spot in that time span. And with Gist in the lineup, Singleton has been even more effective individually as a player, and has made a case during this end-of-the-year stretch as a darkhorse MVP candidate.

Maccabi is trying to avoid the 20-loss mark and salvage something of what has been an extremely dysfunctional and disappointing season thanks to multiple coaching and roster changes. While this game may not mean anything in terms of postseason, a big win over the heavily favored Athenian club good be good momentum for Maccabi in the Winner League as well as next season (proving that they still deserve an A license despite two sub-par years). To Maccabi’s credit, Ainars Bagatskis has done a decent job, getting the most out of a less-heralded roster (such as Gal Mekel and Joe Alexander) and making Maccabi tough competition on a round-by-round basis. Sylven Landesberg has especially thrived under Bagatskis, which makes one wonder how Maccabi would have done this year had they relied on him instead of flameout Sonny Weems and the injury-ridden Quincy Miller.

An interesting dilemma: Baskonia Vitoria Gasteiz vs. Zalgiris Kaunas

Baskonia is looking for a win in their home Euroleague Regular Season finale, as this game could determine their playoff position, which could range from 5th-to-8th depending on whether the Basque clubs wins or loses, and what else happens in the other games. What’s interesting is if Baskonia beats Zalgiris, and gets the fifth spot, that would mean a matchup with Pana, who swept Baskonia during the Regular Season, including two weeks ago, where Pana absolutely shut down Baskonia’s offense 72-63 in Vitoria. It may be tempting for Baskonia to “tank” this game against Zalgiris, especially since Baskonia has split with CSKA and Real Madrid in the Euroleague this year (they also got swept by Olympiacos, so they might want to avoid the sixth spot as well).

Baskonia on paper is better than Zalgiris, as Baskonia will have distinct advantages at the point guard position (thanks to Shane Larkin) as well as in the frontcourt, where Toko Shengelia has been a key cog in Baskonia’s late-season resurgence. However, Baskonia’s desire to get out of matchups with Pana and Olympiacos (5th and 6th), as well as Zalgiris head coach Sara Jasikevicius’ subtle auditioning for a more high-profile coaching job next season (Barcelona seems to be the one most talked about as a destination for Saras) could factor in a potential upset at Fernando Buesa Arena on Thursday. It may be the fan in me over-thinking it, and I can’t imagine head coach Sito Alonso will want to lose the last game of the year going into the playoffs.

But hey, you never know…perhaps the Gregg Popovich “resting” players strategy of the NBA could pop up in Round 30 in Vitoria.

Meltdown in Istanbul?: Fenerbahce vs. Barcelona

If Fenerbahce loses, it’s entirely possible that they could get the 8th seed in the playoffs. Yes, that’s right. This club was one basket away from a Euroleague championship a year ago, and was widely heralded as the favorites to return to the Final Four and win it with it being hosted in Istanbul. Now, it’s plausible that Fenerbahce could be entrenched in a brutal first round matchup with Real Madrid, the Euroleague’s top seed.

It’s amazing how head coach Zeljko Obradovic has not killed someone from Fenerbahce this year (maybe he has and we just don’t know). This year has been a perfect storm against Turkey’s premiere club: Bogdan Bogdanovic and Luigi Datome have all been injured down the stretch and missed time; former All-Euroleague player Jan Vesely has declined significantly; they have some questionable losses, including getting swept by Darussafaka in Euroleague play. Other than Ekpe Udoh (who has put in a MVP case of his own), and Bogdanovic (when healthy), Obradovic has struggled to get any consistent productivity from his club that entered the season as heavy Final Four favorites.

On paper, Fenerbahce should take care of things against Barcelona in Round 30. Barcelona has gone through it’s own horrendous season, plagued by injuries and down seasons by key players (Ante Tomic being the main culprit). Barcelona is 12-17, and it’s already been widely rumored that there is going to be significant changes roster and coaching-wise this off-season. In many ways, this Barcelona team is a dead-man walking, which should be a softball for a Fener team looking to get some momentum heading into the postseason.

But this Barcelona team is not going out quietly. They’ve won their last two games, beating Crvena Zvezda (hurting their playoff chances in the process) in Round 28 and then beating Maccabi Tel Aviv in Round 29. Brad Oleson, who’s been widely criticized for declining the past couple of years, is coming off a 13 point game where he posted a PIR of 19, and Tomic showed he had some left in the tank with 15 points and a PIR of 23 in their home finale. Give it to this Barca squad: they don’t have much to play for (other than ACB, which they are still in the hunt), but they aren’t going to quit and lay down.

Will Barca win one for Georgios Bartzokas in what could be his Euroleague finale with the Catalan club? Obradovic and the Fenerbahce players and fanbase certainly hope not.

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April 7th-Round 30 of the Euroleague

Probably don’t bother: Olimpia Milano vs. UNICS Kazan

It’s a battle to see who avoids the Euroleague cellar. After flirting with competitiveness in the middle of the season UNICS has lost 12 Euroleague games in a row. Without an A license and after a subpar showing this year, they are probably destined back for the Eurocup, unless they can rally in VTB play. Other than Keith Langford challenging for the Euroleague scoring title, and head coach Evgeny Pashutin’s turned up talks to his team, there really hasn’t been any reason to pay much attention to this team during the last third of the season.

The same can be said of Jasmin Repesa and his Milano squad. They are playing hard despite being out of the playoff pictures weeks ago, and they are doing well enough in Italian League play that they will probably be back in the Euroleague in 2017-2018. Furthermore, fellow countryman Andrea Cinciarini has been worth watching during this end-of-the-year stretch, highlighted by his 17 point performance in a 88-84 win over Zalgiris last week which ended a 13-game losing streak in Kaunas. But neither of those reasons, much like the UNICS one above, should merit this game as worth watching, be it live or replay.

The great, but nothing to gain or lose matchup: CSKA Moscow vs. Olympiacos

CSKA’s home finale in Moscow will certainly be a challenge: this could be a potential Final Four or Championship game matchup. All season long, these two clubs have been the two of the best three teams (along with Real Madrid) and it seems fitting that they will play in a mega-matchup which will be April 6th’s Game of the Day.

Unfortunately, neither CSKA or Olympiacos has anything to gain in this Round 30 game. Real Madrid clinched the No. 1 spot after a win over Fenerbahce last week, and Olympiacos can’t go any higher or lower than their No. 3 spot. Olympiacos could use the week to rest players, especially considering key players such as Vassilis Spanoulis, Georgios Printezis and Matt Lojeski have had various injury issues throughout the season. CSKA could also benefit from such a strategy, as head coach Dimitris Itoudis may want to make sure his combo of Nando de Colo and Milos Teodosic is 100 percent by Game 1 of the Playoffs.

Nonetheless, I think this will be a competitive game, as both teams are looking to bounce back after losses the previous week, and do not want to enter the playoffs on losing streaks. That may be enough to at least force both CSKA and Olympiacos to play their full rosters (momentum going into the postseason is always huge), which should produce a highly entertaining game between the Euroleague’s two premiere clubs.

Efes Strikes Back?: Real Madrid vs. Anadolu Efes

After a 19-point Round 25 loss in Istanbul to Brose Bamberg, many Euroleague fans wondered if Anadolu Efes was going to even make the playoffs. They were 13-12, and had a tough four-game schedule down the stretch that included a road game in Kaunas against Zalgiris (who at the time was also competing for the 8th spot), a home game against Fenerbahce (which isn’t really a home game), a home game against Olympiacos, and a road game against Real Madrid in the season finale. It seemed entirely plausible that Efes could have gone 0-4, and missed the playoffs for a second straight season.

Instead, since the Bamberg loss, Efes has gone 4-0, winning the first three out of their “death stretch”, with a chance to win all of them in the season finale. Efes is now 17-12, and not only have they clinched a playoff spot, but they are also shooting for a chance at the fifth position, which would match them up with Pana, whom they have split with this season. Efes has plenty of weapons, with Derrick Brown as an inside-outside frontcourt threat, and Bryan Dunston controlling things down in the paint. But the biggest resurgence has been at the point guard position, as Jayson Granger put up his best performances of the year during the final double week of the season, helping Efes clinch their playoff ticket thanks to an incredible 25 point performance in Kaunas, and then following it up with a 13-point, 5 assist performance against derby rival Fenerbahce. And what’s amazing is that despite Granger’s presence, he is not even the best point guard on the team, as Thomas Huertel from France has carried this Efes team for the most part this season. That kind of depth makes Efes a scary playoff foe for any top seed.

As for Real Madrid, their depth is unparalleled both in the back and frontcourts. Anthony Randolph, who will be signing an extension with Madrid, is finally playing the best basketball of his career (including NBA), making him a scary matchup for opposing post players, and boosting the depth of an already loaded Los Blancos frontcourt which includes Felipe Reyes, Gustavo Ayon, Othello Hunter and Trey Thompkins. However, one of the biggest progressions this year may be Sergio Llull, who may be the frontrunner (and deservedly so) for the Euroleague Regular Season MVP award. The combination of Llull’s improved efficiency, and knack for carrying Los Blancos during big moments at the end of games puts him over other competitors such as de Colo and Milos Teodosic of CSKA, Udoh of Fenerbahce, Printezis of Olympiacos (though he certainly has his share of big game moments) and Singleton of Panathinaikos.

The tempting pick may be for Real Madrid to rest their starters and with their depth they could afford to do so. But I think Madrid is aware of Efes’ surging, and they know Llull’s challenging for that MVP award. This Efes game could be a signature moment/game for Llull to cement his legacy as the Euroleague’s best player of the 2016-2017 season, and I think head coach Pablo Laso will play him on that alone.

A surging Efes team looking to garner the fifth spot? A Los Blancos team looking to seal Llull’s award as the Euroleague’s best player? This should be a hell of a game.

Win or go home: Darussafaka vs. Crvena Zvezda

I have already gone into many reasons why Red Star should make the playoffs in my previous post.  So I am going to keep this section short. After their controversial win over Bamberg in Germany last week, Dacka forced the do-or-die matchup in Istanbul in Round 30. On the flip side, Red Star beat UNICS as expected, giving them a bit more playoff flexibility if they win (they could get a 7 seed).

This is the game of the week. Period. It will be a dogfight. It probably won’t be pretty. There will probably be a lot of shitty calls in favor Dacka (as we saw last week against Bamberg). But clear your schedule, put a reminder on your phone or whatever.

This is the game you need to watch in Round 30. And you need to be cheering with the whole of Belgrade and Serbia for Red Star as well.

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